Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Apple Closes at a Really Good All-Time HIgh! $235.84

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Overview
AAPL - another all-time closing high of 235.84 on Tuesday, March 30.  AAPL has set all-time closing highs both days this week, with a close of 232.39 yesterday, Monday, March 29, which is a good way to start the week, lol. AAPL is up +2.14% for the week, up +15.26% for the month, up +11.92% for the year, and up +183.77% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL exceeded the recent all-time closing highs of Friday (March 26) of 230.90, Wednesday (March 24) of 229.37, Tuesday (March 23) 228.36, and Friday (March 12) of 226.60, to name a few. Apple's market capitalization, $210B+, is now apparently less than $50 billion below Microsoft's, $259.61B, per this report.

iPad
The iPad hype has reached a fever pitch! The Big Day is Saturday, April 3 when iPad goes on sale, including at Best Buy. Estimated 2010 sales of iPad range from 3 million units to 10 million units. It has been suggested that iPad sales might cut into iPhone sales some, but I don't believe this will have a material effect.

iPhone
On Monday, news broke that Apple would have at least one CDMA iPhone for Verizon.  The time frame of when this might occur varies widely in the reports, with a year the most common prediction.  Regardless, this news resulted in predictions of increased sales of iPhones the AAPL stock was up and away (again) on Tuesday.

Apple Daily Chart
Below is the AAPL daily chart from December 2009, including the December 7 close of 188.95 up through today's all-time closing high of 235.84.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on daily chart below:
Current 235.84 + 2010 YTD 3-30-10 High 235.84 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
January 19 Previous YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 190.30 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)


AAPL: Yep, All-Time High Again!




Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is now above any previous closing high, so there is no resistance above. AAPL is in uncharted terriorty, literally. There is much significant support below.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and now has regained both the 100d and 50d sma's.. AAPL is above the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's, which are ascending, as the all-time highs pull the sma's upwards.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. AAPL decisively above this uptrend line on February 25.  AAPL has now stayed well above this uptrend line.

Downtrend Line
There is no downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is at an all-time high.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 14 day = 70.06 is now at the edge of overbought range; reasonable considering AAPL's great bull run
RSI 28 day = 76.82 is overbought; not too high yet but rising
How high can AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback? RSIs are not unreasonably high. There is still some upside left in the RSIs, but how long can this amazing bull run last?

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line.  Therefore, AAPL is in a long-term bull market.

Conclusion
AAPL continues onwards and upwards powered by the imminent introduction of the iPad (April 3), CDMA iPhone prospects with Verizon, and overall sales going strong. The February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05 was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. The current price is at an all-time closing high. The RSI 14 day and 28 day indicate AAPL is not unreasonably overbought, but the RSIs are rising, of course.. I keep saying additional consolidation and perhaps some pullback is probable before another surge upwards in 2010. It hasn't happened yet, lol.  So far the Bulls just keep charging ahead. The buyers have been in control for days now.  The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.


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Monday, March 29, 2010

Apple: New All-Time High! *Yawns*

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Overview
AAPL set yet another all-time closing high of 232.39 today, March 29, which is a good way to start the week, sheesh.  AAPL is up +0.65% for the week, up +13.57% for the month, up +10.28% for the year, and up +179.62% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL exceeded the recent all-time closing highs of Friday (March 26) of 230.90, Wednesday (March 24) of 229.37, Tuesday (March 23) 228.36, and Friday (March 12) of 226.60, to name a few. An intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal was generated on Friday, March 12. Previously, an intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal occurred in mid February 2009 and the race was on - until a sell/short signal just before Christmas 2009. It was a amazing bull run! Another breakout, and buy/long signal, occurred a couple of weeks later, which lasted until February 17.

iPad
The iPad hype is reaching a fever pitch, lol.  The Big Day is Saturday, April 3 when iPad goes on sale.  Estimated 2010 sales of iPad range from 3 million units to 10 million units.  It has been suggested that iPad sales might cut into iPhone sales some, but I don't believe this will have a material effect.  Apple's market capitalization, $210.73B, is now apparently just $50 billion below Microsoft's, $259.61B, per this report.

Insider Selling
As I noted in the previous post, Phillip Elmer-DeWitt (Apple 2.0 blog) reported today that "Apple Executives Sell 1 Million Shares Of Stock". Seven officers sold 1 million AAPL shares on Wednesday and Thursday of this week at prices of either 229.37 or 230.70. Based on the current all-time closing high, this insider selling through yesterday has not had any stock price effect. AAPL's 50 day moving average is just over 23 million shares traded. At this time I don't see any negative implications to this insider selling. The stock was granted to all seven of them on December 14, 2005 and they became fully vested on Wednesday. Thereupon they sold the stock immediately at AAPL's all-time high trading range and some was reportedly sold for tax purposes.

Apple Daily Chart
Below is the AAPL daily chart from December 2009, including the December 7 close of 188.95 up through today's all-time closing high of 232.39.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on daily chart below:
Current 232.39 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
2010 YTD 3-29-10 High 232.39 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
January 19 YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 189.68 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)


AAPL: All-Time High Yet Again!





Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is now above any previous closing high, so there is no resistance above. AAPL is in uncharted terriorty, literally. There is much significant support below.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and now has regained both the 100d and 50d sma's.. AAPL is above the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's, which are ascending, as the all-time highs pull the sma's upwards.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. AAPL battled this uptrend line for days before breaking out above February 25. AAPL has now stayed well above this uptrend line.

Downtrend Line
There is no downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is at an all-time high.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 14 day = 68.17 is still reasonable; very reasonable considering AAPL's great bull run
RSI 28 day = 75.60 is overbought; not too high yet but rising
How high can AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback? RSIs are not unreasonably high. There is still some upside left in the RSIs, but how long can this bull run last?

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line.

Conclusion
AAPL continues onwards and upwards powered by the imminent introduction of the iPad (April 3) plus overall sales going strong.  The February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05 was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. The current price is at an all-time closing high. The RSI 14 day and 28 day indicate AAPL is not unreasonably overbought. Additional consolidation and perhaps more pullback is probable before another surge upwards in 2010. I stated previously that I thought the shorts, the Bears, would jump on AAPL at some point due to the inevitability of a pullback, but so far the Bulls just keep charging ahead.  The buyers have been in control. The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.


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Friday, March 26, 2010

Apple Closes At All-Time High: 3rd Time This Week!

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Overview
AAPL set yet another all-time closing high today, March 26, for the third time this week.  AAPL is up +3.89% for the week, up +12.84% for the month, up +9.57% for the year, and up +177.82% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL exceeded the recent previous all-time closing highs of Wednesday (March 24) of 229.37, Tuesday (March 23) 228.36, and Friday (March 12) of 226.60. An intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal was generated on Friday, March 12. Previously, an intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal occurred in mid February 2009 and the race was on - until a sell/short signal just before Christmas 2009. It was a amazing bull run! Another breakout, and buy/long signal, occurred a couple of weeks later, which lasted until February 17.

Insider Selling
Phillip Elmer-DeWitt (Apple 2.0 blog) reported today that "Apple Executives Sell 1 Million Shares Of Stock".  Seven officers sold 1 million AAPL shares on Wednesday and Thursday of this week at prices of either 229.37 or 230.70.  Based on the current all-time closing high, this insider selling through yesterday has not had any stock price effect.  AAPL's 50 day moving average is just over 23 million shares traded.  At this time I don't see any negative implications to this insider selling.  The stock was granted to all seven of them on December 14, 2005 and they became fully vested on Wednesday.  Thereupon they sold the stock immediately at AAPL's all-time high trading range and some was  reportedly sold for tax purposes.

Apple Daily Chart
Below is the AAPL daily chart from December 2009, including the December 7 close of 188.95 up through today's all-time closing high of 230.90.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on daily chart below:
Current 230.90 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
2010 YTD 3-26-10 High 230.90 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
January 19 YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 189.40 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)


AAPL: All-Time High Again!




Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is now above any previous closing high, so there is no resistance above. AAPL is in uncharted terriorty, literally. There is much significant support below.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and now has regained both the 100d and 50d sma's.. The 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's are ascending, as the all-time highs pull the sma's upwards.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. AAPL battled this uptrend line for days before breaking out above February 25. AAPL has now stayed well above this uptrend line.

Downtrend Line
There is no downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is at an all-time high.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 14 day = 70.93 is still reasonable; bottom at 65.96 yesterday, Thursday
RSI 28 day = 73.85 is overbought; not too high yet
How high can AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback? RSIs are not unreasonably high.  There is still some upside left in the RSIs, but how long can this bull run last?

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line.

Conclusion
AAPL continues to rally Big Time above the February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05, which has been lowest closing during the 2010 pullback. The current price is at an all-time closing high. The RSI 14 day and 28 day indicate AAPL is not unreasonably overbought.  Additional consolidation and perhaps more pullback is probable before another surge upwards in 2010. I stated previously that I thought the shorts, the Bears, would jump on AAPL at some point due to the inevitability of a pullback, but so far the Bulls have had a great run . The buyers have been in control. The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.

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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Apple Closes at All-Time High, 2 Days in a Row!

Apple


Overview
AAPL set yet another all-time closing high today, March 24, for a second consecutive day.  AAPL is up +3.20% for the week, up +12.10% for the month, up +8.85% for the year, and up +175.98% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL exceeded the previous all-time closing highs of yesterday, March 23,  of 228.36 and 226.60 set on Friday, March 12. An intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal was generated on Friday, March 12. Previously, an intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal occurred in mid February 2009 and the race was on - until a sell/short signal just before Christmas 2009. It was a amazing bull run! Another breakout, and buy/long signal, occurred a couple of weeks later, which lasted until February 17.

Below is the AAPL daily chart from December 2009, including the December 7 close of 188.95 up through today's all-time closing high of 229.37.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on daily chart below:
Current 229.37 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
2010 YTD 3-24-10 High 229.37 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
January 19 YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 189.13 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)


AAPL: At All-Time Highs





Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is now above any previous closing high, so there is no resistance above.  AAPL is in uncharted terriorty, literally.  There is much significant support below.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and now has regained both the 100d and 50d sma's.. The 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's are ascending, as the all-time highs pull the sma's upwards.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low has been the bottom for the 2010 pullback to date. AAPL battled this uptrend line for days before breaking out above February 25. AAPL has stayed well above this uptrend line.

Downtrend Line
There is no downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is at an all-time high.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 10 day = 64.60 is reasonable, neutral; has dropped from 99+ due to last week's consolidation
RSI 25 day = 76.92 is overbought; has dropped from lower 80s due to last week's consolidation
How high can AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback? RSIs are not as high I would have guessed.  There is still some upside left in the RSIs, but this bull run can't last forever.

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line.

Conclusion
AAPL continues to rally Big Time above the February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05, which has been lowest closing during the 2010 pullback. The current price is at an all-time closing high. The RSI 10 day and 25 day indicate AAPL is becoming overbought, but the recent pullback and consolidation has decreased the RSI from the highs of earlier in March. Additional consolidation and perhaps more pullback is possible, and inevitable, before another surge upwards in 2010. I stated previously that I thought the shorts, the Bears, would jump on AAPL at some point due to the inevitability of a pullback, but so far the Bulls have had a great run . The buyers have been in control.  The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Apple Closes at All-Time High!

Apple


Overview
AAPL set yet another all-time closing high today, March 23.  AAPL is up +2.75% for the week, up +11.60% for the month, up +8.37% for the year, and up +174.77% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL took out the previous all-time closing of 226.60 set on Friday, March 12.  An intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal was generated on Friday, March 12. Previously, an intermediate-term buy/long/bull signal occurred in mid February 2009 and the race was on - until a sell/short signal just before Christmas 2009. It was a amazing bull run! Another breakout, and buy/long signal, occurred a couple of weeks later, which lasted until February 17.

Below is the AAPL daily chart from the 1-20-09 closing low of 78.20 up through today's all-time closing high of 228.36.  That is some uptrend line!

Noteworthy Closing Prices on daily chart below:
Current 228.36 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
2010 YTD 3-23-10 High 228.36 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
January 19 YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 188.94 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)


AAPL: From the Bottom to the Top




Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is now above any previous closing high.  Therefore, there is much significant support below, but no resistance above.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and now has regained both the 100d and 50d sma's.. The 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's are ascending. Setting all-time highs make the moving averages very bullish, lol.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low has been the bottom for the 2010 pullback to date. AAPL battled this uptrend line for days before breaking out above February 25. AAPL has stayed well above this uptrend line.

Downtrend Line
There is no downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is at an all-time high.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 10 day = 66.36 is reasonable, neutral; has dropped from 99+ due to last week's consolidation.
RSI 25 day = 75.13 is overbought; has dropped from lower 80s due to last week's consolidation
How high will AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback?  RSIs are not as high as could be expected.  There is still some upside left in the RSIs.

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line.

Conclusion
AAPL continues to rally Big Time above the February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05, which has been lowest closing during the 2010 pullback. The current price is at an all-time closing high. The RSI 10 day and 25 day indicate AAPL is becoming overbought, but the recent pullback and consolidation has decreased the RSI from the highs of earlier in March. Additional consolidation and perhaps more pullback is possible, before another surge upwards in 2010. I stated previously that I thought the shorts, the Bears, would jump on AAPL at some point due to the inevitability of a pullback, but so far the Bulls have had a great run . The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.

Monday, March 22, 2010

S&P 500 Sectors Update, Including XLK, Technology Sector



Matrix Markets has updated the S&P 500 Sectors, as represented by the 9 Select SPDRS. XLK, the related Technology sector, is noted as:

XLK Technology

Above 25d, 50d, 100d, 200d sma's
RSI 25d = 76.49 is oversold
MACD (12,26,9) is bullish since February 16
Below 2010 YTD highs


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