AAPL Apple closed at $317.13 on Friday, November 5, 2010. AAPL rallied with and led the market to be up +5.37% for the week and November, is up an incredible +50.49% for the year, and is up an astronomical +281.58% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. This equates to +$16.15 for the week and November, +$106.40 for the year, and +$234.02 since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL is down -0.36% and -$1.14 from the 2010 YTD and all-time closing high of $318.27 on Thursday, November 4. Apple has traded above $300 for 18 consecutive trading days.
S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500, was up +42.59 and +3.60% for the week and for November, is up +9.93% for the year, and is up +81.20% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is now above the April 23, 2010 previous YTD closing high of 1217.28 and is at the highest close since the September 19, 2008 close of 1255.08. AAPL is outperforming the overall market long-term since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, outperforming the market for 2010, and outperformed the market in September and October. A review of the S&P 500 (S&P 500 at Highest Close Since September 2008! (Charts) *Bulls rally 5 straight weeks, 9 of last 10!* SPY SPX) is here.
Apple News and Fundamentals Apple reported record revenues and net income for Q3, which are reviewed and analyzed on this blog.. Current Apple financial data, charts, and review is at the Apple Financial Performance page, updated for the latest calendar Q3 results reported on October 18. A review and analysis of the most recent Q3 earnings call has been posted at the Apple Earnings Conference Call page. Our valuation and target price of AAPL stock is posted at the Apple Stock Valuation page. On Wednesday, October 20, the all-new MacBook Air was unveiled along with updates for the iLife suite, FaceTime for Mac, and a peak at the next OSX upgrade, Lion. Apple has launched in September both the iPad and iPhone 4 in China, the world's largest Internet market with a growing consumer base with disposable income. On September 1 with the Apple Special Music Event, CEO Steve Jobs launched new iPods, iTunes, iOS, and Apple TV. A summary and review of these announcements is posted here (Steve Jobs Unveils New iPods, iOS, iTunes, TV) and here (Apple Announces New iPods, iTunes, iOS, TV). Earlier, Apple launched the iPhone 4 in late June and the iPad in early April. International sales accounted for 52% of revenue in the latest quarter reported.
Apple at Lofty Heights
AAPL Daily Chart Below is the AAPL daily chart since September 27, 2010 to illustrate just the applicable price interactions with the current close, resistance, and support. There are no previous price interactions, Apple has never traded this high before, above $300. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.
Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: $317.13
2010 YTD and All-Time High, November 4: $318.27
2010 YTD Low, February 4: $192.05
YE December 31, 2009: $210.73
Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy signal on Tuesday, September 21. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, both are now ascending, and the signal has caught up with the amazing AAPL September Bull Run (+16.7%) that continued into October (+6.1%) and now into November (+5.4%).
Resistance AAPL has pulled back slightly from the all-time closing high of 318.27 on November 4, which is now current resistance, the 318.00 area (highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). The previous all-time intraday highs of 319.57 and 319.00 on November 5 and October 18, respectively, could potentially be resistance. The all-time intraday high of 320.18 on November 4 is final resistance.
Support AAPL surpassed for the first time in history and now has remained above 300.00 for 18 consecutive trading days so there are multiple levels of support below. Current support is the 310.00 area (middle yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above), specifically the 309.49 close on October 19 and the 310.53 close on October 20. Support was found here on November 3 to continue above 310.00. Next is the benchmark and psychological support in the 300.00 area (lowest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). Support was found here on October 13, 14, 19, and 29 to continue above 300.00.
Moving Averages AAPL continues well above all the daily simple moving averages: the 25, 50, 100, and 200 (only the 25d and 50d sma's are shown on the daily chart above). The 25d sma is ascending and continues above the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d sma continues ascending sharply and is above the 100d and 200d sma's. The 100d sma (not shown) is ascending along and just below the uptrend line discussed below, and above the 200d sma. The 200d sma (not shown) continues to ascend, indicating the overall trend is upwards. These moving averages are spread out in a bullish fan.
Uptrend Line (lower right corner of chart) The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 cyclical closing low of 192.05. The January 20 closing low has been the bottom for 2010. AAPL dropped below this trendline on August 23, but regained it on September 3 and now has been above since.
Downtrend Line AAPL is just below the recent all-time closing high of 318.27 on November 4, so there is no significant downtrend line.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 48.92 is reasonable, descending, and well below the recent highs during the price runup. The multi-year and 2010 high was 97.49 on September 16. The 2010 YTD low was 21.49 on August 24. The RSI 28 day = 67.03 is reasonable, ascending, and well below the recent highs during the price runup. The 2010 peaks have been 84.63 and 83.79 on April 5 and April 23, respectively. The 2010 low was 38.25 on August 31. The RSIs have remained reasonable as AAPL pulled back the previous weeks of October 22 and 29.
MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = -0.30, is now uptrending the last 4 days, and has been negative for 10 consecutive trading days due to the pullback the previous weeks of October 22 and 29. The September 22 MACD of +3.16 is the 2010 YTD high. The 2010 low was -3.55 on May 7. Previously the highest was on November 4, 2008 at +3.41.
Volume AAPL volume was 12.9M on Friday, November 5 - the lowest since September 7. The 20-day moving average is approximately 20.4M. The 20d sma peaked right after the calendar Q3 earnings report on October 18. The 50d sma is approximately 19.8M and leveling off after the October 18 earnings report. The Apple Frenzy had abated until this week, as AAPL led the overall market surge upwards.
Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 262.75 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close of 317.13. AAPL is in a long-term bull market and has been since April 2009.
Conclusion AAPL led the way during the USA September Stock Market Rally and continued to do so in October up to the calendar Q3 earnings report on October 18. Even with record revenues and net income, expectations were so high Apple did not confirm the 318.00 close before the earnings announcement and has pulled back for the 2 weeks of October 22 and 29. AAPL lead the overall market rally this past week. We believe AAPL did confirm the 318.00 close and the holiday Q4 earnings report will be another all-time record revenues and earnings. More about AAPL stock evaluation in future posts, but the current AAPL price appears low. Our price target for AAPL is $400. The intermediate-term trend is bullish and the long-term trend is bullish.
AAPL Monthly Chart
Up +306% and +$239 from January 20, 2009 cyclical closing low of $78.20!
Below is the monthly AAPL chart since the January 2009 cyclical low. The overall analysis and commentary is the same as for the daily chart above. The current price, the yellow horizontal lines, and the yellow uptrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average of 262.75, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal. AAPL is well above the 10m ema with a close on Friday, November 5 of 317.13. AAPL has remained above the 10m ema since April 2009 indicating a long-term bull market.
We are long AAPL.
Apple Inc. achieved a milestone the week of May 24, 2010, passing Microsoft in market capitalization to become the largest technology company, and second overall largest company, in the USA. AAPL's market capitalization is now $290.91B, compared to Microsoft's of $229.72B. Exxon leads with $352.98B. Apple reported calendar Q3 revenues of $20.3B and net income of $4.3B. Microsoft reported calendar Q3 revenues of $16.2B and net income of $5.4B. Current Apple financial data is at the Apple Financial Performance page. Current Microsoft financial data is at the Microsoft Financial Performance page. Apple is now 20.21% (11-5-10) of the NASDAQ 100 index, as measured by the QQQQ ETF, weighted by market capitalization. AAPL is one of the most traded stocks in the USA. Per the SEC Form 10-K, Apple had 46,600 full-time employees and 2,800 temporary full-time employees and contractors as of September 25, 2010.
Apple's Mission Statement and as described in press releases, "Apple designs Macs, the best personal computers in the world, along with OS X, iLife, iWork, and professional software. Apple leads the digital music revolution with its iPods and iTunes online store. Apple reinvented the mobile phone with its revolutionary iPhone and App Store, and has recently introduced its magical iPad which is defining the future of mobile media and computing devices."
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