Sunday, August 14, 2011

Apple Rallies Against Market Downdraft! (Chart) *Up 17% in 2011* AAPL


Apple briefly surpassed Exxon as #1 in market capitalization during the week ended August 12, 2011
Apple is doing great! It's the rest of the world that is a mess!


Apple Inc. AAPL closed the week at $376.99 on Friday, August 12, 2011 and was up +0.90% for the week, is down -3.45% for August, was up +16.33% for July, is up +16.87% for 2011, and is up an incredible +353.60% from the market cyclical low on March 9, 2009. AAPL set an all-time closing high of $403.41 on July 26, 2011 and is now -6.55% below this peak. Apple continues below the 20-day average, dropping below on Thursday, August 4, but continues above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.

Benchmark $348.48 Apple continues above the then all-time closing high of $348.48 of January 14, 2011 and has closed below since May 10, 2011. That all-time closing high was on a Friday and Apple Inc. announced the next Monday, January 17, that Co-Founder and CEO Steve Jobs was taking a medical leave of absence. We are watching this benchmark price of $348.48 as an indicator of buyer conviction and confidence in AAPL with Steve Jobs absent on medical leave.

S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500, closed at 1178.81 for the week, and was down -1.72% for the week, is down -8.78% for August, was down -2.15% for July, and is down -6.27% for 2011. SPX is up +74.24% since the March 9, 2009 market cyclical low. SPX closed at a multi-year closing high of 1363.61 on Friday, April 29, 2011, the highest close since the June 9, 2008 close of 1404.05, and is now -13.55% below that peak. AAPL is outperforming the overall market long-term since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, outperformed the market in 2010, and is outperforming the market in 2011. A review of the S&P 500 is here, Wild Week for the S&P 500! (Chart) *Big ups & downs result in -1.72% decline*.

Apple Fundamentals Apple reported calendar Q2 2011 financial results on July 19, 2011 and are reviewed here [Apple Earnings Soar to All-Time High in Q2! (Financial Charts) *Astounding financial performance and position*]. Previously, Apple reported near-record calendar Q1 2011 financial results on April 20. This was after Apple reported calendar Q4 2010 financial results on January 18 which were a record and legendary. These financial results are reviewed and analyzed on this blog.. Current Apple financial  data, charts, and review is at the Apple Financial Performance page, updated for the latest calendar Q2 2011 results reported on July 19. A review and analysis of the Q1 2011 earnings call has been posted at the Apple Earnings Conference Call page and will be updated soon for the Q2 2011 earnings call. Our updated calendar Q2 2011 valuation and target price of AAPL stock is posted at the Apple Stock Valuation page. International sales accounted for 62% of Q2 2011 revenues, up from 59% of revenues in Q1 2011, the same as 62% in Q4 2010 and up from 52% in Q3 2010.

Apple Product News 2011 A summary and review of 2011 major announcements are below in this post.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies plus the USA financial system are posted at Boom Doom EconomyFinancial ControlsBaidu Planet, and Neo SolomonAdditional current commentary on both the overall stock market and economy is posted at Matrix Markets.

APPLE DAILY CHART (click on chart to enlarge)

Apple Daily Chart Below is the AAPL daily chart since January 14, 2011 to illustrate recent price interactions.

Noteworthy Closing Prices
Current Close: $376.99
2011 and All-Time High: July 26 $403.41
2011 Low: June 20 $315.32
2010 High: December 28 $325.47
2010 Low: February 4 $192.05
YE December 31, 2010: $322.56
YE December 31, 2009: $210.73
Cyclical Low: January 20, 2009 $78.20

Apple Chart Review
Intermediate Term Trend ascending 25d avg greater than ascending 50d avg since 7-18-11, AAPL is just below 25d, leaning bullish
Long Term Trend AAPL greater than 10 month ema = 343.06, has been overall bullish since April 2009, bullish
Key Resistance 20d avg 383, all-time closing high 403.41, all-time intraday high 404.50
Key Support prior all-time closing high 363.1350d avg 356, 100d avg 349, 348.48 
Moving Averages below 20d avg, continues above 50d, 100d, 200d avgs
Uptrend Line above since 8-9-11; line from 1-20-09 closing low 78.20 up thru 2-4-10 192.05
Downtrend Line none significant, below recent all-time high
RSI 14 Day = 40.99 is near oversold, descending
RSI 28 Day = 57.62 is reasonable, descending
MACD (12,26,9) = -3.58, ascending
Volume low 18.9M latest day, 50 day avg = 19.6M
Price Earnings Ratio (ttm) low 14.92, historically in low 20s


Conclusion The market downdraft pulled AAPL down to the pre-Q2 earnings level, before the pop upwards. Apple has given up the gains from the solid Q2 financial performance. AAPL tested the 50-day  and the prior 2-16-11 all-time closing high, but rallied upwards to close the week above. Apple is doing great, it's the rest of the world that is a mess! Numerous analysts have raised estimates and/or price targets. The fundamentals of Apple continue legendary with record calendar Q2 2011 total revenues, net income, earnings per share, cash flow per share, operating margin, gross margin, and total assets of $106.76 billion. Current and noncurrent cash and investment reserves are an amazing $76+ billion. The remainder of 2011 appears positive for Apple and we are forecasting Q3 to outperform Q2, and the holiday Q4 quarter setting another record peak. We project quarterly total revenues to reach $30 billion by Q4 2011. The fundamentals of Apple Inc. have been stellar, as discussed above and reviewed on this blog. Our AAPL target price short-term has been raised to $440. The intermediate-term trend indicator is now leaning bullish and the long-term trend continues bullish.

Disclosure We currently have no position in AAPL and sold our long position the week ending July 22, 2011 due to market uncertainties. We continue bullish on Apple for 2011.

Apple News 2011 A summary & review of 2011 & 2010 major announcements are posted or will be posted on this blog.
● Apple briefly topped Exxon as #1 in USA market capitalization during the week ended August 12, 2011. See commentary further below.
● Apple passed Nokia as #1 in smartphone sales in Q2 2011, with 18.5% of all shipments worldwide.
● Apple has more cash than the U.S. Treasury in late July 2011. Apple's cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $76.2 billion exceeded the U.S. Treasury cash on hand of $73.8 billion.
● Fake Apple Stores in China: If imitation is the highest form of flattery, the fake Apple stores in China are the ultimate in illegal replication. These stores imitate the complete Apple store experience and attempt to be an exact reproduction including the employees and their badges and uniforms!
● The new MacBook Air was launched and the OS X Lion became available the week ended July 22.
● Hyper Apple: Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White on July 12, 2011 raised his estimates for Apple (AAPL) based on rising iPhone and iPad projections, while reiterating a Buy rating and a $612 price target on the stock, and throwing some language the stock’s way that’s akin to a big tent revival: "we believe Apple is a beacon of hope in an increasingly concerning world".
● All await the unveiling of the iPhone 5 and even a lower-priced iPhone which may be launched in Q3 2011.
● Apple held the annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) June 6-10 with CEO Steve Jobs presenting the keynote speech and introducing iCloud. Also previewed were Mac OS X Lion and iOS 5.
● An explosion at a Foxconn plant on May 20 in Chengdu, China which produces the iPad 2 created uncertainty over manufacturing disruption. There already has been concern the demand for iPad 2 is much greater than Apple's production abilities. Cirrus Logic earlier reported production problems with an audio device and 50% of its business is supplying components to Apple. Components of the iPad 2 (at least five) from Japanese suppliers may be delayed due to the March earthquake.
● The new 27-inch all-in-one iMac was announced May 3.
● The international launch of the iPad 2 in 25 countries was March 25 to long lines of customers at Apple stores.
● The iPad 2 went on sale on Friday, March 11 and promptly sold out online, pushing delivery dates from days to weeks. Lines at Apple stores in the USA were long and the only way to have any hope of purchasing an iPad 2 and taking immediate delivery.
● Apple launched the iPad 2 and iOS 4.3 on March 2. Steve Jobs also announced 1) 100 million downloads from iBooks store, 2) Random House will begin distributing their 17,000+ books on iBooks, 3) 200 million accounts with credit cards and one-click purchasing on iTunes, App Store, and iBooks, 4) over $2 billion paid to developers from selling apps on the App Store, 5) 100 million iPhones have been shipped, and 6) almost 15 million iPads were sold in 2010.
● Apple launched the new MacBook Pro on February 24.
● Steve Jobs met with President Barack Obama at a dinner on February 17. This was the first "semi-public" appearance of CEO Jobs since the announcement of the medical leave on January 17.
● Apple announced an App Store subscription service for magazines, videos, music, and videos on February 15.
● The Apple iPhone 4 officially is on the Verizon Wireless network and available at stores effective February 10. Verizon Wireless announced on February 4 record first day launch sales (online pre-order) of the iPhone 4. The record was broken in 2 hours.
● On January 22 Apple announced the App Store had surpassed 10 billion downloads in about 2.5 years.
● The online Mac App Store opened on January 6, 2011, increasing Apple's cloud presence, and Apple announced there were 1 million downloads in the first day.

Apple Data Apple Inc. briefly surpassed Exxon as #1 in USA market capitalization during the week ended August 12, 2011. AAPL achieved a milestone the week of January 7, 2011 when total market capitalization surpassed $300 billion. Previously, the week of May 24, 2010, Apple surpassed Microsoft in market capitalization to become the largest technology company, and second overall largest company, in the USA. Apple Inc. has managed to continue above $300B market capitalization after the announcement of Steve Jobs' medical leave of absence. AAPL's market capitalization is #2 at $349.50 billion, compared to #3 Microsoft's of $210.29 billion. #1 Exxon leads with $354.68 billion (Exxon surpassed $400 billion in market capitalization for the first time the week ending February 4, 2011). Apple reported calendar Q2 2011 total revenues of $28.57 billion and net income of $7.31 billion. Microsoft reported calendar Q2 2011 total revenues of $17.37 billion and net income of $5.87 billion. Microsoft continues to have higher gross and  operating margins than Apple, but Apple has surpassed Microsoft on net margin. Current Apple financial  data is at the Apple Financial Performance page. Current Microsoft financial data is at the Microsoft Financial Performance page. Apple is now 14.47% of the NASDAQ 100 index, as measured by the PowerShares QQQQ ETF portfolio holdings, weighted by market capitalization, but rebalanced effective May 2, 2011. AAPL is one of the most traded stocks in the USA. Per the SEC Form 10-K, Apple had 46,600 full-time employees and 2,800 temporary full-time employees and contractors as of September 25, 2010. Apple is compared to other giant technology companies here [Largest USA Tech Companies: Financial Performance & Position Review].

Apple's Mission Statement and as described in press releases, "Apple designs Macs, the best personal computers in the world, along with OS X, iLife, iWork, and professional software. Apple leads the digital music revolution with its iPods and iTunes online store. Apple reinvented the mobile phone with its revolutionary iPhone and App Store, and has recently introduced its magical iPad which is defining the future of mobile media and computing devices."


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