Sunday, April 18, 2010

Apple: Another Great Week!

AAPL


Overview
AAPL - four more all-time closing highs this week, with a small pullback on Friday, April 16. AAPL is up +2.32% for the week, up +5.28% for the month, up +17.40% for the year, and up an amazing +197.68% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. This equates to +$5.61 for the week, $12.40 for the month, +$36.67 for the year, and an incredible +$164.29 since the March 9, 2009 market bottom! Apple's market capitalization at $210B+ is now third largest in USA, behind Exxon and Microsoft. AAPL is approximately $50 billion below Microsoft's market cap of approximately $259B.

iPad
Reports of tremendous demand for iPads and Apple delaying the international rollout apparently drove AAPL yet even higher this week.  The Big Day was Saturday, April 3 when iPad went on sale, including at Best Buy. Reviews of the iPad have been favorable overall. The App Store keeps adding iPad apps and the iBook store the same. I personally was disappointed there wasn't a sell out over the first weekend, but so far sales appear acceptable. Estimated 2010 sales of iPad range from 3 million units to 10 million units. It has been suggested that iPad sales might cut into iPhone sales some, but I don't believe this will have a material effect.

iPhone
The iPhone OS 4 was announced on Thursday, April 8 by CEO Steve Jobs . iPhone continues incredible sales and market share. Jobs suggested at the Thursday event that Apple is beating The Street's estimates of Q1 2010 iPhone sales. Hence yet another increase in AAPL price. Apple reports Q1 earnings on April 20. Apple's share of global mobile Web browsing is at 67% from the iPhone and iPod Touch.

iAd
CEO Steve Jobs introduced the new personalized, mobile advertising system, iAd on April 8. This would compete directly, and replace, Google's advertising platform. I personally think this was a bigger announcement than the iPhone OS 4, that is, Apple is going inito the mobile advertising business. While iPad and iPhone sales should positively impact Q1 earnings, to be reported April 20, the iAd may well have a significant impact in future quarters as this revenue stream comes online.

Apple Daily Chart
Below is the AAPL daily chart from December 2009, including the December 7 close of 188.95 up through the current all-time closing high of 241.79.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart below:
Current High 247.40 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
2010 YTD High 4-16-10 248.92  
January 19 Previous YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 200.56 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)


AAPL: 4 All-Time Highs This Week, Same As Last Week!




Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is just below the previous day closing high, which is the all time high.  So that is the only resistance above. AAPL is still in uncharted terriorty, literally. There is much significant support below.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and is now well above the other sma's on the chart.. AAPL is above the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's, which are ascending, as the all-time highs pull the sma's upwards and fan them out in a bull pattern.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. AAPL spiked decisively above this uptrend line on February 25. AAPL has now stayed well above.

Downtrend Line
There is no significant downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is just below the all time high of Thursday, the previous day close.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 14 day = 86.63 is very overbought; higher than previous Friday; but Friday pullback decreased slightly
RSI 28 day = 77.90 is overbought; down from peak of 84.63 on April 5 and from previous Friday
How high can AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback? RSIs have increased into overbought territory, but decreased recently. How long can this amazing bull run last?

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line. Therefore, AAPL is in a long-term bull market and has been since April 2009.

Conclusion
AAPL continues onwards and upwards powered by the introduction of the iPad, a new iPhone OS 4, a new mobile advertising platform (iAd), overall strong iPhone sales and market share, and now reports of very strong iPad demand. The February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05 was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. The current price is just below the previous day all-time closing high. The RSI 14 day and 28 day indicate AAPL is now overbought, but have pulled back slightly. The MACD has been bullish since February 16. I keep saying additional consolidation and perhaps some pullback is probable before another surge upwards in 2010. It hasn't happened yet, lol. So far the Bulls keep charging ahead - everyone wants in on the Apple Action. The buyers have been in control for weeks now. The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.

Disclosure
I am long AAPL.


AAPL

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