Friday, April 2, 2010

Apple Closes Week at All-Time High on iPad Hype! $235.97


AAPL - another all-time closing high of 235.97 on Thursday, April 1. AAPL set all-time closing highs three days this week, including a close of 235.84 on Tuesday, March 31 and 232.39 on Monday, March 29, which is a good week, lol. AAPL is up +2.20% for the week, up +0.41% for the month, up +11.98% for the year, and up +183.92% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. AAPL also exceeded the recent all-time closing highs of Friday (March 26) of 230.90, Wednesday (March 24) of 229.37, Tuesday (March 23) 228.36, and Friday (March 12) of 226.60, to name a few. Apple's market capitalization at $210B+ is now third largest in USA, behind Exxon and Microsoft.  AAPL is approximately $50 billion below Microsoft's market cap of $259.61B.

The iPad hype has reached a crescendo! The Big Day is Saturday, April 3 when iPad goes on sale, including at Best Buy. Reviews of the iPad started being released yesterday and are favorable.  Apple began releasing instructional videos this week and launched iPad apps in the App Store.  Estimated 2010 sales of iPad range from 3 million units to 10 million units. It has been suggested that iPad sales might cut into iPhone sales some, but I don't believe this will have a material effect.

On Monday, March 29, news broke that Apple would have at least one CDMA iPhone for Verizon. The time frame of when this might occur varies widely in the reports, with a year the most common prediction. Regardless, this news resulted in predictions of increased sales of iPhones and the AAPL stock was up and away (again) on Tuesday.  There have been subsequent reports discounting this news, but overall the iPad hype has drowned out iPhone news for a time.

Apple Daily Chart
Below is the AAPL daily chart from December 2009, including the December 7 close of 188.95 up through the current all-time closing high of 235.97.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on daily chart below:
Current 235.97 & 2010 YTD 4-1-10 High 235.97 (Highest yellow horizontal line)
January 19 Previous YTD High 215.04 (Second highest yellow horizontal line)
YE 12-31-09 210.73 (Third highest yellow horizontal line)
10 Month EMA 190.15 (Lowest yellow horizontal line)

AAPL: April 1 All-Time High - No Fooling!

Intermediate-Term Trend
The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy/long/bull signal on Friday, March 12, 2009. Therefore, AAPL is now in an intermediate-term bull market. That is, the 25d sma is higher than the 50d sma.

Resistance and Support
The current closing price, the highest yellow horizontal line is now above any previous closing high, so there is no resistance above. AAPL is in uncharted terriorty, literally. There is much significant support below.

Moving Averages
The 25d sma bottomed on February 26, began ascending strongly, and now has regained both the 100d and 50d sma's.. AAPL is above the 25d, 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's, which are ascending, as the all-time highs pull the sma's upwards.

Uptrend Line
The uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. AAPL spiked decisively above this uptrend line on February 25. AAPL has now stayed well above.

Downtrend Line
There is no downtrend line, a rate of price descent, because AAPL is at an all-time high.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI 14 day = 67.05 is reasonable; the last 3 days have really been consolidation
RSI 28 day = 79.31 is overbought; is gettiing a little "toppy", but still some room upside
How high can AAPL run until another consolidation and/or pullback? RSIs are not unreasonably high. There is still some upside left in the RSIs, but how long can this amazing bull run last?

MACD (12,26,9)
The MACD is bullish and has been since February 16.

Long-Term Trend
The lowest horizontal yellow line is the 10 month exponential moving average from the monthly chart, which I have overlayed on this daily chart. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close, the highest yellow horizontal line. Therefore, AAPL is in a long-term bull market.

AAPL continues onwards and upwards powered by the imminent introduction of the iPad (April 3), CDMA iPhone prospects with Verizon, and overall sales going strong. The February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05 was the bottom of the 2010 pullback. The current price is at an all-time closing high. The RSI 14 day and 28 day indicate AAPL is not unreasonably overbought, but the RSIs are rising, of course.. I keep saying additional consolidation and perhaps some pullback is probable before another surge upwards in 2010. It hasn't happened yet, lol. So far the Bulls just keep charging ahead - everyone wants in on the Apple Action. The buyers have been in control for days now. The intermediate-term trend became bullish on Friday, March 12. The long-term trend remains bullish.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Seeking Alpha