Saturday, January 8, 2011

Apple Soars to All-Time Closing High! (Charts) *Market capitalization surpasses $300 billion!* AAPL


The online Apple Mac App Store opened on Thursday, January 6, 2011
Apple Inc. CEO Steve Jobs unveiled the Mac App Store at the Back to the Mac Event on October 20, 2010

Apple Overview

AAPL Apple set yet another all-time closing high to close the week and begin 2011 on Friday, January 7, 2011 of $336.12. This results in another milestone for Apple: market capitalization surpassing $300 billion ($308.33B). See the About Apple section at bottom of this post for more discussion. AAPL was up +4.20% for the week and the same for the month and year. Apple has gained for 6 of the past 7 weeks and is up an astronomical +304% since the March 9, 2009 market cyclical low. This equates to +$13.56 for the week, month, and year and +$253.01 since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. Apple has closed above $300 for 61 consecutive trading days and above $320 for 22 of the past 24 trading days.

S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500, was up +1.10% for the week and the same for the month and year. SPX is up +88% since the March 9, 2009 market cyclical low. SPX closed at a multi-year closing high of 1276.56 on Wednesday, January 5, 2011, the highest close since the September 2, 2008 close of 1277.57. AAPL is outperforming the overall market long-term since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, outperformed the market in 2010, and outperforming the market in 2011. A review of the S&P 500 is here [S&P 500 Starts the New Year Up +1.1% for the Week (Charts) *6 consecutive weekly gains*].

Apple News and Fundamentals Apple will report calendar Q4 2010 financial results on Tuesday, January 18 at 2 p.m. PT. Apple reported record revenues and net income for calendar Q3 2010, which are reviewed and analyzed on this blog.. Q4 2010 is expected to be even better. Current Apple financial  data, charts, and review is at the Apple Financial Performance page, updated for the latest calendar Q3 results reported on October 18. A review and analysis of the most recent Q3 earnings call has been posted at the Apple Earnings Conference Call page. Our valuation and target price of AAPL stock is posted at the Apple Stock Valuation page. The online Mac App Store opened on January 6, 2011, increasing Apple's cloud presence. On December 21, Apple reported sales of Apple TV would surpass 1 million units during the week. On Wednesday, October 20, the all-new MacBook Air was unveiled along with updates for the iLife suite, FaceTime for Mac, and a peak at the next OSX upgrade, Lion. Apple launched in September both the iPad and iPhone 4 in China, the world's largest  Internet market  with a growing consumer base with disposable income. On September 1 with the Apple Special Music Event, CEO Steve Jobs launched new iPods, iTunes, iOS, and Apple TV. A summary and review of these announcements is posted here (Steve Jobs Unveils New iPods, iOS, iTunes, TV) and here (Apple Announces New iPods, iTunes, iOS, TV). Earlier, Apple launched the iPhone 4 in late June and the iPad in early April. International sales accounted for 52% of revenue in the latest quarter reported.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies plus the USA financial system are posted at Boom Doom EconomyFinancial Controls, and Baidu Planet. Additional current commentary on both the overall stock market and economy is posted at Matrix Markets.

Apple Soars to All-Time Closing High!

Apple Daily Chart Below is the AAPL daily chart since early November 2010 to illustrate all trading at or above $320. There are no previous price interactions, Apple has never traded this high before, above $320. A monthly chart is included lower on this page for a longer-term perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices
Current Close: $336.12
2010 High December 28: $325.47
2010 Low February 4: $192.05
YE December 31, 2010: $322.56
YE December 31, 2009: $210.73
Cyclical Low January 20, 2009: $78.20

* The 200 day simple moving average and uptrend line are not shown on the daily chart this week. The 100d sma is barely visible in the lower right hand corner. *

Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy signal on Tuesday, September 21. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. The relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator. Both the 25d sma and 50d sma continue ascending.

Resistance AAPL is at an all-time closing high of 336.12 so technical resistance is minimal. The all-time intraday high of 336.35 that same day is the only resistance.

Support AAPL surpassed 300.00 for the first time in history on October 13 and now has remained above 300.00 for 61 consecutive trading days, so there are multiple levels of support below. The ascending 20 day simple moving average of 325.31 is important buyer conviction support as is the ascending 50d sma of 317.74 further below. The 321 and 320 area is support. This corresponds with multiple closings in this area. Additional support is the 318.00 area. This corresponds with October 18, November 10, and December 2 closings of 318.00, 318.03, and 318.15, respectively. Well below is the the benchmark and psychological 300.00 area. Support was found at 300.00 on October 13, 14, 19, 28, 29 and November 16, 17 to continue above 300.00.

Moving Averages AAPL is above all the simple moving averages monitored: the 20, 25, 50, 100, and 200 day. All are ascending. Each is above any longer term average. These moving averages are spread out in a bullish fan.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 cyclical closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 YTD closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low was the bottom for 2010. AAPL dropped below this trendline on August 23, but regained it on September 3 and remained above since.

Downtrend Line AAPL is at an all-time closing high of 336.12, so there is no downtrend line in play.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 81.03 has risen to overbought levels and is ascending towards the October 18 peak of 82.04 (a correction then ensued). The multi-year and 2010 high was 97.49 on September 16 (rally continued for a few days before a correction). The 2010 low was 21.49 on August 24. The RSI 28 day = 68.51 is leaning overbought but has leveled off. The 2010 peaks were 84.63 and 83.79 on April 5 and April 23, respectively. The 2010 low was 38.25 on August 31. The short-term RSI is   rather high but the intermediate-term RSI continues reasonable.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = +0.80, is ascending, and reflects the rapid rise in price. The September 22 MACD of +3.16 was the 2010 high. The 2010 low was -3.55 on May 7. Previously the highest was on November 4, 2008 at +3.41.

Volume Volume was a higher 11.1M on Friday, January 7, throughout the past week, and above recent multi year lows. The 20 day moving average of approximately 10.5M has been at long term lows, is descending, but is now leveling off. The 20d sma peaked right after the calendar Q3 earnings report on October 18. The 50d sma is approximately 13.6M, descending, and the lowest since October 2009. Volume should continue to increase in 2011 as the calendar Q4 earnings is reported on Tuesday, January 18.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 284.26 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close. AAPL is in a long-term bull market and has been since April 2009.

Conclusion AAPL now is above 330.00 for the first time in history and volume has increased. Calendar Q4 2010 financial results will be reported on Tuesday, January 18 and are expected to be more all-time record revenues and earnings. More about AAPL stock evaluation in future posts, but the current AAPL price appears reasonable. Our price target for AAPL is $400. The intermediate-term trend continues bullish and the long-term trend continues bullish.

Apple Monthly Chart

Below is the monthly AAPL chart since the January 20, 2009 cyclical closing low of 78.20. The overall analysis and commentary is the same as for the daily chart above. The yellow uptrend line is the same, and as described above, on the daily chart discussion. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal. AAPL is well above the 10m ema at the current close. AAPL has remained above the 10m ema since April 2009 indicating a long-term bull market.

We are long AAPL.

About Apple

Apple Inc. achieved a milestone the week of May 24, 2010, passing Microsoft in market capitalization to become the largest technology company, and second overall largest company, in the USA. AAPL achieved yet another milestone the week ended January 7, 2011 when total market capitalization surpassed $300 billion. AAPL's market capitalization is now $308.33B, compared to Microsoft's of $244.69B. Exxon leads with $381.17B. Apple reported calendar Q3 revenues of $20.3B and net income of $4.3B. Microsoft reported calendar Q3 revenues of $16.2B and net income of $5.4B. Current Apple financial  data is at the Apple Financial Performance page. Current Microsoft financial data is at the Microsoft Financial Performance page. Apple is now 20.37% of the NASDAQ 100 index, as measured by the QQQQ ETF portfolio holdings, weighted by market capitalization. AAPL is one of the most traded stocks in the USA. Per the SEC Form 10-K, Apple had 46,600 full-time employees and 2,800 temporary full-time employees and contractors as of September 25, 2010.

Apple's Mission Statement and as described in press releases, "Apple designs Macs, the best personal computers in the world, along with OS X, iLife, iWork, and professional software. Apple leads the digital music revolution with its iPods and iTunes online store. Apple reinvented the mobile phone with its revolutionary iPhone and App Store, and has recently introduced its magical iPad which is defining the future of mobile media and computing devices."

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