Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Apple Above Most Resistance at 270.22 (Charts) *All-time closing high 274.07*


Apple Upside Breakout Above Summer Trading Range

Apple Mid-Week Review

AAPL Apple rose above the top (264.08) of the recent trading range on Monday and closed today, Wednesday, at 270.22. AAPL is up +2.59% for the week, up +11.16% for the month, up +28.23% for the year, and up an amazing +225.14% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. This equates to +$6.81 for the week, +$27.12 for the month, +$59.49 for the year, and an incredible +$187.11 since the March 9, 2009 market bottom! AAPL at the Wednesday, September 15 close of $270.22 is down just -1.40% and -$3.85 from the all-time closing high of $274.07 on June 25.

S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500, SPX, is up +1.40% for the week, up +7.22 for the month, now up +0.89% for the year, and up +66.30% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. In addition, SPX is down -7.58% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. AAPL is outperforming the overall market long-term since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, outperforming the market for 2010, and outperforming the market short-term.

Apple Above Most Resistance

AAPL Daily Chart Below is the AAPL daily chart since late April 2010. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close $270.22
2010 YTD & All Time High 6-18-10 $274.07
2010 YTD Low 2-4-10 $192.05
YE 12-31-09 $210.73

Trading Range AAPL had been in a trading range since June 29 with a top closing price of 264.08 on July 27 (lowest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart below). AAPL closed above this resistance on Monday, September 13 at 267.04, negating the trading range.

Resistance AAPL has risen to lofty heights and there are only a few noteworthy resistance prices remaining. AAPL at 270.22 today just cleared the closing dip of 270.17 on June 21 (highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). With only .05 clearance, this could technically remain resistance. The only remaining resistance are the three highest peak closings of all-time: 270.83, 273.85, and 274.07 on April 23, June 22, and June 18, respectively. That's it, that's all that is above for AAPL!

Support Because AAPL is above the YTD lows, pullbacks, and the recent trading range, there are multiple levels of price support below. The aforementioned June 21 closing dip of 270.17  is apparently now support (highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above) as is the regained June 28 peak of 268.30 (middle yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). Most recent benchmark support is the top of the recent trading range of 264.08 on July 27 (lowest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). The 100 day simple moving average (255.94) and the 50d sma (255.06) were regained on September 3 and are now far below.

Moving Averages AAPL continues above all the daily simple moving averages on the chart: the 25, 50, 100, and 200. The 25d sma has begun to ascend, but is below the 50d and 100d. The 50d sma is also ascending, crossed below the 100d sma on August 31 - a Death Cross, but should regain the 100d sma soon. The 50d sma continues above the 25d and 200d sma's. The 100d sma has leveled off and is above the 25d, 50d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma continues to ascend, indicating the overall trend is upwards.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low has been the bottom for 2010. AAPL dropped below this trendline on August 23, regained it on September 3, and now has been above for 8 consecutive trading days.

Downtrend Line The yellow downtrend line, a rate of price descent, has been created by the pullback from the June 18 all-time high. This downtrend line is from the June 18 all-time closing high of 274.07 down through the June 22 sub-peak of 273.85. AAPL regained this trendline on Monday, September 13 and now  has been above for 3 consecutive trading days.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 89.64 is now overbought and just below the YTD peaks of 94.10 and 91.10 on April 15 and March 15, respectively. This is well above the 2010 YTD low of 21.49 on August 24. The RSI 28 day = 55.56 is reasonable with plenty of upside, well below the YTD peaks of 84.63 and 83.79 on April 5 and April 23, respectively, and above the 2010 YTD low of 38.25 on August 31. The RSIs 14 day is getting pushed, but another all-time high could be reached for AAPL before a pullback and consolidation.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD flipped to bullish on September 2 after being bearish since August 11. The MACD has been up trending since August 26 (14 consecutive trading days). The current +2.63 on September 15 is now the 2010 YTD high, surpassing the previous the 2010 peak of +2.49 on March 10. The 2010 low was -3.55 on May 7. Previously the highest was on November 4, 2008 at +3.41.

Volume AAPL traded 15.2M shares on today, Wednesday, September 15. Volume has slightly uptrended since Friday, September 13 with total volumes of 13.8M, 13.9M, 14.6M, and now 15.2M. The 20 day moving average is approximately 16.3M and leveling  off. Volume began decreasing for AAPL on July 22, when the 20 day moving average was was approximately 29M! This recent rally has not generated a spike in volume, except on September 1, when CEO Steve Jobs introduced new products at the Special Event. So, there hasn't been a  "piling on" as AAPL reaches new heights.

Conclusion This USA September Stock Market Rally slowly continues upwards with AAPL leading the way. Economic data has been mixed but the uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery, or at least the rate of recovery is not holding the equity markets, nor Apple, down. This has been an amazing, and unexpected, bull run for AAPL and the stock market. AAPL is close to and may reach the all-time highs of June, before a pullback and consolidation. There is is little resistance above: Enjoy the Ride!

AAPL Monthly Chart

Below is the monthly AAPL chart since January 2005. The overall analysis and commentary is the same as for the daily chart above. The higher and lower yellow horizontal lines are the current trading range discussed above. The the current price and the yellow uptrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average, 237.03, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal. AAPL is now well above at the 270.22 close today.

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