Saturday, September 18, 2010

Apple Has All-Time Week! (Charts) *Record closing high of $276.57 on Thursday*


Apple set an all-time closing high of $276.57 on Thursday, September 16

Apple Overview

AAPL This was a historic week for Apple Inc. with an all-time closing high of $276.57 on Thursday, September 16. AAPL broke out upside above a trading range this past week, after regaining the 50 day and 100 day simple moving averages the prior week. AAPL closed slightly down, off the all-time high at $275.37, on Friday, September 17 to end the week up +4.54%. AAPL is up +13.27% for the month, up a strong +30.67% for the year, and up an amazing +231.33% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. This equates to +$11.96 for the week, +$32.27 for the month, +$64.64 for the year, and an incredible +$192.26 since the March 9, 2009 market bottom! AAPL at the September 17 close of $275.37 is down -0.43% and -$1.20 from the all-time closing high of $276.57 the previous day.

S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500 closed up +16.04 and +1.45% for the week at 1125.59 on Friday, September 17, 2010. The S&P 500, SPX, is up +7.27% for the month, up +0.94% for the year, and up +66.38% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -7.53% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. AAPL is outperforming the overall market long-term since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, outperforming the market for 2010, and outperforming the market short-term.

Apple News and Fundamentals Apple was in the news on September 1 with the Special Event. At this event, CEO Steve Jobs launched new iPods, iTunes, iOS, and Apple TV. A summary and review of these announcements is posted here (Steve Jobs Unveils New iPods, iOS, iTunes, TV) and here (Apple Announces New iPods, iTunes, iOS, TV). AAPL is currently trading at 20.74 PE (ttm) and the EPS is 13.28. More stellar financial results are expected by Apple for this quarter, to be announced in October.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies are posted at Boom Doom Economy and Matrix Markets.

Apple Has All-Time Week!

AAPL Daily Chart Below is the AAPL daily chart since late April 2010. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close $275.37
2010 YTD & All Time High, September 16: $276.57
2010 YTD Low, February 4: $192.05
YE December 31, 2009: $210.73

Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a sell signal on July 30. That is, the 50d sma is greater than the 25d sma. Previously, a buy signal had been in effect since June 23. However, the relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator, is mostly bullish, both are ascending, and/or negated in a trading range pattern, and have not caught up with the September Rally.

Resistance Because AAPL is just below the September 16 all-time and 2010 YTD closing high, there is little resistance above. Key resistance is this all-time and 2010 YTD closing high of 276.57. Next higher, and final resistance, is the all-time high intraday price of 279.01 on  June 18 (the highest yellow horizontal line at the very top of chart).

Support AAPL is at lofty heights and just below the all-time and 2010 YTD closing high. AAPL is above the recent trading range top, YTD lows, and pullbacks. Accordingly, there are multiple levels of support below. The prior all-time and 2010 YTD closing high of 274.07 on June 18 is closest and key support (the lower yellow horizontal line). Next below is the sub-peak close of 273.85 on June 22 and then the closing peak of 270.83 on April 23 (which was also the day the S&P 500 peaked for 2010).

Moving Averages AAPL continues above all the daily simple moving averages on the chart: the 25, 50, 100, and 200. The 25d sma has begun to ascend sharply, is below the 50d and 100d, but should regain the 50d sma soon. The 50d sma is also ascending, crossed below the 100d sma on August 31 - a Death Cross, but should regain the 100d sma soon. The 50d sma continues above the 25d and 200d sma's. The 100d sma has leveled off, begun ascending, and is above the 25d, 50d, and 200d sma's. The 200d sma continues to ascend, indicating the overall trend is upwards.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the January 20, 2009 closing low of 78.20 up through the February 4, 2010 closing low of 192.05. The February 4 closing low has been the bottom for 2010. AAPL dropped below this trendline on August 23, but regained it on September 3 and now has been above for 10 consecutive trading days.

Downtrend Line Since AAPL is just below the prior day all-time high, there is no downtrend line of consequence.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 94.33 is just lower than the prior day 97.49, overbought, and astronomical.  The prior day, September 16, RSI 14 day of 97.49 was a 2010 YTD and multi-year high. This is well above the 2010 YTD low of 21.49 on August 24. The RSI 28 day = 58.42 is lower than the prior day 60.13, remains reasonable with plenty of upside, well below the YTD peaks of 84.63 and 83.79 on April 5 and April 23, respectively, and above the 2010 YTD low of 38.25 on August 31. The RSI 14 day has been pulled upwards to an extreme while the RSI 28 day is in a reasonable mid-range. Additional all-time highs are certainly possible and could be reached for AAPL before a pullback and consolidation.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = +2.81 and flipped to bullish on September 2 after being bearish since August 11. The MACD had  uptrended since August 26 (15 consecutive trading days) before  pulling back slightly on September 17. The September 16 MACD of +2.89 is now the 2010 YTD high. The 2010 low was -3.55 on May 7. Previously the highest was on November 4, 2008 at +3.41.

Volume AAPL volume was 22.7M on Friday, September 17 and had exploded to 23.3M shares on Thursday, September 16 when the all-time closing high was set. This was the largest daily volume since September 1 (24.9M), when the Apple Special Event was held by CEO Steve Jobs announcing new iPods, new iTunes, new iOS, and an upgraded Apple TV. Volume had been increasing since Friday, September 13 with total volumes of 13.8M, 13.9M, 14.6M, 15.2M, 23.3M, and 22.7M. The 20 day moving average is approximately 17.2M. Volume had been decreasing for AAPL since July 22, when the 20 day moving average was was approximately 29M! This recent rally is now finally generating a spike in volume.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 237.97 is a long-term trend indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long term signal of a bear market. AAPL is well above this signal at the current close. AAPL is in a long-term bull market and has been since April 2009.

Conclusion This USA September Stock Market Rally slowly continues upwards with AAPL leading the way. Economic data has been mixed but the uncertainty over the continuation of the USA economic recovery, or at least the rate of recovery is not holding the equity markets, nor Apple, down. This has been an amazing, and unexpected, bull run for AAPL and the stock market. AAPL is close to and may reach the all-time intraday high price of 279.01 on June 18 (the highest yellow horizontal line at the very top of chart). There is is little resistance above and multiple levels of support below.

AAPL Monthly Chart

Below is the monthly AAPL chart since January 2005. The overall analysis and commentary is the same as for the daily chart above. The current price, the yellow horizontal lines, and the yellow uptrend line are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average of 237.97, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal. AAPL is well above the 10m ema with a close on Friday, September 17 of 275.37. AAPL has remained above the 10m  ema since April  2009.

About Apple
Apple Inc. achieved a milestone the week of May 24, 2010, passing Microsoft in market capitalization to become the largest technology company, and second overall largest company, in the USA. AAPL's market cap is now $251.57B, compared to Microsoft's of $218.24B. Exxon leads with $309.48B. For the last quarter, Microsoft still leads Apple in Revenues $16.04B vs $15.70B, Net Profit $4.52B vs $3.25B, Net Profit Margin 28.2% vs 20.7%. Apple is now 19.63% of the NASDAQ 100 index, as measured by the QQQQ ETF, weighted by market capitalization. AAPL is one of the most traded stocks in the USA.

Related Articles and Links
>>>Recent Osprey Flyer posts<<<
Apple iOS Maintains Lead in August 2010 Mobile Web Consumption (Chart) *Google Android #2*
Apple vs. Google in Mobile Advertising (Video) *Who Will Win?*
Apple TV vs. Google TV (Video) *Who Will Win?*
>>>Recent Matrix Markets posts<<<
S&P 500 Rallies Above 200 Day Moving Average (Charts) *Remains in summer trading range*
>>>Recent Apple Digest posts<<<
Apple at All-Time High! (Charts) *Closes at $276.57*
Is Apple Doubling iPad Production? (Video) *Apple's Big iPad Push*
They Just Don't Get Apple! (Video) *What is Apple TV?*
Steve Jobs Unveils New iPods, iOS, iTunes, TV (Video)

We are long AAPL

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